BRICS is at a crossroads

BRICS 2025: Challenges in the Global Redistribution of Power

Written by: ECAAU
Date: July 2025

🌐 Growth and Internal Friction in BRICS

As of 2025, BRICS has expanded to 11 member states, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Indonesia. The group’s ambition is to offer an alternative to the Western-dominated global economy — particularly to challenge the supremacy of the U.S. dollar.

Over 40% of the world’s population represented
Rapidly growing economic influence
Development of alternative payment and currency systems (CIPS, SPFS)
However, the bloc’s internal cohesion faces significant tests.

⚠️ Key Obstacles to Unified Action

💥 Internal Conflicts

Ongoing tensions between China and India (border disputes, trade friction)
Historical rivalries between Iran and Saudi Arabia hinder consensus
No joint communiqué was issued after the April 2025 BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting — a clear sign of political fragmentation

💰 Uncertainty Over a Common Currency

Discussions about a BRICS currency continue, but technical and political foundations remain elusive
Digital payment systems are fragmented, with no single alternative capable of replacing the dollar

🌍 Geopolitical Tensions

Russia’s war in Ukraine and Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS members add external pressure
Differing foreign policy agendas make it difficult to craft a unified diplomatic stance
 

💱 Dollar’s Decline and the Rise of the Euro in Trade

In parallel, a growing number of BRICS countries and their partners are moving away from the U.S. dollar and increasingly settling trade in euros or other alternative currencies. This trend is being driven by several interlocking factors:

U.S. political instability: Frequent leadership changes and deep partisan divides have eroded trust in American reliability.
Loss of credibility: Trade partners view the U.S. as unpredictable — both in diplomacy and commerce.
Weakening dollar: Inflationary pressures and declining investor confidence have softened the dollar’s dominance.
Ballooning U.S. debt: With national debt exceeding $40 trillion in the end of 2025 and shrinking industrial output, doubts have grown over America's fiscal sustainability.
Tariff threats: Protectionist measures, including proposed 100% tariffs targeting BRICS nations, make dollar-based trade less appealing.

As a result, the euro has gained ground as a more neutral and stable currency for cross-border commerce — particularly among countries skeptical of the U.S. trade posture.

🏛️ The Rio de Janeiro Summit: Symbolism Undermined by Absences

On July 6–7, 2025, Brazil hosted the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, aiming to showcase the bloc’s growing global presence. Instead, the event was marked by high-profile absences:

🇨🇳 Xi Jinping did not attend — China was represented by Premier Li Qiang. Officially due to scheduling conflicts, though tensions between Brazil and India likely played a role.
🇷🇺 Vladimir Putin joined remotely — due to an ICC arrest warrant, Brazil (as a Rome Statute signatory) could not guarantee legal immunity. Moscow cited legal ambiguity as the reason for Putin’s absence.
Other member states including Iran and Egypt were absent as well, citing regional instability. Notably, no joint declaration was issued at the summit — reflecting BRICS’s difficulty in establishing unified positions.

🧠 Final Reflections

BRICS is at a crossroads. While its expanding membership signals ambition, the alliance remains internally fragmented, diplomatically strained, and structurally uncertain. The summit in Rio served as a reminder that global influence is not built through size alone — it requires trust, shared values, and cohesive strategy.

For BRICS to emerge as a true counterweight to Western-led institutions, it must first solve its own internal puzzle.